Will I hit before the gold runs out?
The exact chance to find your copies at any level and gold: Riot's shop odds, the shared pool, copies you hold and copies your lobby took. Exact math, not a simulation.
- Roll at level 7, or buy experience and roll at 8?
- How much gold until it is a coinflip?
- How much does a contested lobby cost me?
Ahri3 copiesLevel 850 gold67.8%
- 25
- Rolls
- Yes
- Even odds already
- 10
- Copies left in the pool
- No gain
- Level up first
Copies sitting in other players' shops can lower this a few points in a contested lobby.
How this works
Exact, not simulated. Every shop is five slot draws: the cost tier from the level's odds, then the champion drawn from the shared pool without replacement. A dynamic program over every shop you can afford gives the exact chance of at least each copy count.
What it accounts for. Riot's shop odds per level, pool sizes per cost, a shop never showing more copies than exist, copies you hold, contested copies, same cost champions already gone, and unlockable champions that grow their tier's pool.
What it assumes. You buy every copy you see. Other players' shops are not modeled, and the pool does not change while you roll.
Where reality differs. Copies sitting in other players' shops are out of the pool but invisible to you, which can cost a few points in a contested lobby. Model it with Contested and Other champions gone.
