Rolling down without going broke
Rolling turns gold into upgrades. Pick the moment, name the upgrades, and never go out with gold in the bank.
Checked for patch 18.4. The numbers come from the live Set 18 data and follow every patch.
The idea
Rolling is buying power with gold. Every shop refresh costs gold, and that gold does nothing until it turns into upgrades on your board. Players go wrong in two directions. Roll every round and you never build interest, so you fall behind everyone who saved. Never roll and you get knocked out with a bank full of gold that never got to fight.
The fix is to roll on purpose. Pick the moment: you just reached the level where your target's cost shows up often, your health is starting to matter, or your board is about to lose fights it cannot afford to lose. Then roll for specific upgrades, not for whatever looks shiny. Stop once the board is stable enough to hold, and rebuild your gold from there.
Two things decide how far your gold goes. Your level sets how often each cost appears in a shop slot: at level 8 a 4-cost fills 30% of every slot. The pool sets how many copies are left to find: there are only 10 copies of each 4-cost in the whole game, and every copy another player holds is one you will never see.
That is why you scout before you roll. If another player already holds a 2-star of your carry, only 7 copies are left for you, fewer than the 9 a 3-star takes, and even the 2-star gets much harder to find. Other players holding other 4-costs works the other way, a little: those copies leave the pool too, so a 4-cost slot is slightly more likely to be yours. What to watch is who holds your carry, not how many 4-costs are around.
One outcome is always wrong. Gold still in the bank when you are knocked out bought you nothing. The game review flags going out with 24 gold or more: nine in ten players who finish in the bottom four go out with less. It also flags the other side of the same mistake: a final board with fewer upgrades than the boards that went out in the same round, or a carry still short on stars.
See it live
Your level, your gold and the unit you need: the calculator works out the chance to hit it before you spend a coin. It opens on a 2-star of a current 4-cost carry at level 8, then shows the same roll when the lobby holds copies.
Lunar Aphelios Nidalee carries with Aphelios, a 4-cost. It is the most played comp with a 4-cost carry right now.
67.8%
- 25
- Rolls
- Yes
- Even odds already
- 10
- Copies left in the pool
- No gain
- Level up first
Copies sitting in other players' shops can lower this a few points in a contested lobby.
The same roll three ways: you hold no copy of Aphelios, you are level 8 and you roll 50 gold.
Nobody else on it
All 10 copies of Aphelios are in the pool.
- 10
- Copies left for you
- 44%
- Chance to reach a 2-star from none
- Under 1%
- Chance to reach a 3-star from a 2-star
Another player holds a 2-star
Their copies of Aphelios are out of the pool for the whole game.
- 7
- Copies left for you
- 23%
- Chance to reach a 2-star from none
- Not possible
- Chance to reach a 3-star from a 2-star
Contested, and a crowded lobby
On top of that, 3 more players each hold a 2-star of another 4-cost.
- 7
- Copies left for you
- 26%
- Chance to reach a 2-star from none
- Not possible
- Chance to reach a 3-star from a 2-star
Copies of your own carry on other boards are what hurts. Other 4-costs leaving the pool make each 4-cost slot a little more likely to be yours, but they never give back the copies you lost.
Copies of each champion in the shared pool
- 29
- 1-cost
- 22
- 2-cost
- 18
- 3-cost
- 10
- 4-cost
- 9
- 5-cost
Every copy on another player's board or bench is one your shop can no longer show. Open the pool sizes
The rule of thumb
Roll at a moment you chose, for upgrades you can name, and never get knocked out with gold in the bank.
Check yourself
Your carry is a 4-cost. Another player already holds it at 2-star, and you hold none. Can you still 3-star it?
Pick an answer.
