Skip to content
hexkeyHexKey home
UniversityFundamentalsLesson 5 of 95 minute read

Rolling down without going broke

Rolling turns gold into upgrades. Pick the moment, name the upgrades, and never go out with gold in the bank.

Checked for patch 18.4. The numbers come from the live Set 18 data and follow every patch.

The idea

Rolling is buying power with gold. Every shop refresh costs gold, and that gold does nothing until it turns into upgrades on your board. Players go wrong in two directions. Roll every round and you never build interest, so you fall behind everyone who saved. Never roll and you get knocked out with a bank full of gold that never got to fight.

The fix is to roll on purpose. Pick the moment: you just reached the level where your target's cost shows up often, your health is starting to matter, or your board is about to lose fights it cannot afford to lose. Then roll for specific upgrades, not for whatever looks shiny. Stop once the board is stable enough to hold, and rebuild your gold from there.

Two things decide how far your gold goes. Your level sets how often each cost appears in a shop slot: at level 8 a 4-cost fills 30% of every slot. The pool sets how many copies are left to find: there are only 10 copies of each 4-cost in the whole game, and every copy another player holds is one you will never see.

That is why you scout before you roll. If another player already holds a 2-star of your carry, only 7 copies are left for you, fewer than the 9 a 3-star takes, and even the 2-star gets much harder to find. Other players holding other 4-costs works the other way, a little: those copies leave the pool too, so a 4-cost slot is slightly more likely to be yours. What to watch is who holds your carry, not how many 4-costs are around.

One outcome is always wrong. Gold still in the bank when you are knocked out bought you nothing. The game review flags going out with 24 gold or more: nine in ten players who finish in the bottom four go out with less. It also flags the other side of the same mistake: a final board with fewer upgrades than the boards that went out in the same round, or a carry still short on stars.

See it live

Your level, your gold and the unit you need: the calculator works out the chance to hit it before you spend a coin. It opens on a 2-star of a current 4-cost carry at level 8, then shows the same roll when the lobby holds copies.

Lunar Aphelios Nidalee carries with Aphelios, a 4-cost. It is the most played comp with a 4-cost carry right now.

Chance to hitAphelios3 copiesLevel 850 gold

67.8%

ReliableYou find all 3 in about 68 of 100 rolldowns like this.
Chance of at least
1 copy98%
2 copies88%
3 copies68%
4 copies42%
25
Rolls
Yes
Even odds already
10
Copies left in the pool
No gain
Level up first

Copies sitting in other players' shops can lower this a few points in a contested lobby.

Open this spot as a full page
Common spots
Player levelSets the shop odds
Unit costChance per shop slot at level 8
Champion10 copies of each 4 cost in the pool
CopiesTwo star takes 3, three star takes 9. 10 left to find.
You hold
0
You need
3
ContestedCopies on other players' boards and benches
0
Gold25 rolls at 2 gold each
050100150200
Other 4 costs gone98 of 140 4 cost copies still in the pool
42
ExperienceToward level 9, bought 4 at a time
0of 68

The same roll three ways: you hold no copy of Aphelios, you are level 8 and you roll 50 gold.

  1. Nobody else on it

    All 10 copies of Aphelios are in the pool.

    10
    Copies left for you
    44%
    Chance to reach a 2-star from none
    Under 1%
    Chance to reach a 3-star from a 2-star
  2. Another player holds a 2-star

    Their copies of Aphelios are out of the pool for the whole game.

    7
    Copies left for you
    23%
    Chance to reach a 2-star from none
    Not possible
    Chance to reach a 3-star from a 2-star
  3. Contested, and a crowded lobby

    On top of that, 3 more players each hold a 2-star of another 4-cost.

    7
    Copies left for you
    26%
    Chance to reach a 2-star from none
    Not possible
    Chance to reach a 3-star from a 2-star

Copies of your own carry on other boards are what hurts. Other 4-costs leaving the pool make each 4-cost slot a little more likely to be yours, but they never give back the copies you lost.

Copies of each champion in the shared pool

29
1-cost
22
2-cost
18
3-cost
10
4-cost
9
5-cost

Every copy on another player's board or bench is one your shop can no longer show. Open the pool sizes

The rule of thumb

Roll at a moment you chose, for upgrades you can name, and never get knocked out with gold in the bank.

Check yourself

Your turn

Your carry is a 4-cost. Another player already holds it at 2-star, and you hold none. Can you still 3-star it?

Pick an answer.